Background
Serious progress was made on GHG issues during this session, but little was finalized.
The IMO is a 175-nation consensus organization (about 90 countries attended MEPC) with several dozen maritime industry and environmental non-voting observer non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Agreements are typically tricky and fraught with politics and special-interest pressures.
A historic agreement was reached at last year’s MEPC 80 meeting, which updated IMO’s overall GHG strategy:
To peak GHG emissions from international shipping as soon as possible and to reach net-zero GHG emissions by around 2050; to reduce CO2 emissions per transport work, as an average across international shipping, by at least 40% by 2030; to reduce the total annual GHG emissions from international shipping by at least 20%, striving for 30%, by 2030; to reduce the total annual GHG emissions from international shipping by at least 70%, aiming for 80%, by 2040, all compared to 2008.
While no substantial new agreements or final regulations were expected during this session, serious progress was made toward the GHG strategy, turning agreed-upon items into mandatory regulations and progressing the following essential issues:
LCA Framework: Work continued on the Guidelines on the life cycle GHG intensity of marine fuels (LCA Guidelines) to establish Well-to-Wake fuel factors necessary to properly consider the net GHG factors of biofuels, methanol, and onboard carbon capture. A new LCA Correspondence Group considering onboard carbon capture was established.
Mid-Term Measures: Progress was made on the two components of the major new GHG regulations: a goal-based global fuel standard and an economic mechanism to incentivize fuel transitions.
Net-Zero Framework: This is an important legal step to formulating the next round of mid-term GHG measures. The general consensus was that the upcoming GHG regulations would be included in MARPOL Annex 6, possibly as a new Chapter 5. It is crucial that the regulations be included in a more easily attained “tacit approval” mechanism of an existing convention rather than an onerous approval process of a new GHG convention.
Future Expectations
The agreed 2025 timetable for adoption in 2027 is a significant deadline. Work will continue to turn the GHG strategy into mandatory regulations; the finalization of the LSA Guidelines, including biofuels and onboard carbon capture; future phases of EEDI for new ships; the continuation of annual CII reductions beyond 2026 towards 2050 for existing ships; and adoption of the technical (global fuel standard) and economic (carbon pricing) mid-term measures. These guidelines represent a significant work program for IWSG-GHG and MEPC for the subsequent few sessions. Still, there are signs of progress, constructive proposals, and even some signs of flexibility, which will be necessary to find consensus on these complex issues.
