On November 1st, Herbert Engineering President, Spencer Schilling, participated in a panel session reviewing future fuel options for ships in 2030, at the SNAME Maritime Convention in Tacoma WA - Panel Session.

Spencer reviewed out the ambitious IMO 2030 and 2050 goals for GHG emissions, and presented some of the positive and negative aspects of some of the potential lower-carbon fuels such as LNG, Methanol, Ammonia, Hydrogen, Biofuels, Synthetic Fuels, and also Battery/Hybrid as well as solar, wind, and carbon capture. It is important not to just consider GHG produced onboard, but to include all the equivalent GHG emissions considering the full ‘well-to-wake’ emissions. Many future fuels have potential to contribute to the GHG reductions for ships, but currently many of these fuels are produced with methods and non-renewable energy generating significant GHG during their production.

There is no real ‘silver bullet’ for alternative fuels and it is likely that multiple fuel and powering technologies will immerge over the next 10-20 years. Bio-fuels and synthetic fuels would be the least disruptive to current ship technology and ship designs as they do not require any substantial technical innovation for adaptation, but alternative carbon-neutral and low-carbon fuels like Ammonia & Hydrogen have potential for long-haul ships but will require significant development in their shipboard adaptation.

There does not appear to be a clear ‘winner’ between ‘carbon-neutral’ biofuels and near ‘zero-carbon’ fuels like Hydrogen and Ammonia. The economics and world-wide scalability will likely be dominated by non-maritime transport and shoreside power production, since maritime is a fairly minor player in overall world energy demand. Battery, hybrid, solar, and wind all have their niches especially for smaller and short-haul vessels, but all are likely to play a limited and supplemental role in the future long-haul deep-sea transport business.

Future containership designs of a 2000 TEU feeder ship and a 14,000 new-Panamax containership are presented in their current 2020 configurations, as well as in their possible 2030 biofuel and hydrogen fuel cell variations.

Spencer Schilling presenting at SNAME in November 2019.